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Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season/November
November 12L.KATE AOI: East of Windwards This looks semi-promising. This new AOI has showed up at 0/20 on the five day outlook (and only the five day outlook), and says that some slow development is possible early next week. It would be cool to have another storm in the Atlantic this year. (As long as it's not too weak, I'm looking at you Hanna the name stealer) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:29, November 5, 2015 (UTC) :A new tropical wave has popped up on the TWD, extending from 18N57W to 09N58W and moving west at 15 knots. An associated 0/30 AOI has popped up on the TWO along the tropical wave, so we could see something in the long run when it moves near and beyond Puerto Rico. Maybe Kate is possible after all! [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 01:37, November 6, 2015 (UTC) ::20/40 some models are developing this into a td. It might become later on. It would be surprising that a ts develop in November and not October. I dont count Joaquin as he form in September. Anyhow if Kate forms this will be one of the latest El Niño years to end, as most end in Sept or Oct.Allanjeffs 07:07, November 7, 2015 (UTC) : It's up to 20/50 now. This seems likely to be Kate, and that would be neat to have a November Atlantic storm in an El Nino year! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:18, November 7, 2015 (UTC) ::: It's up to 50/70 now, and we could see Kate pretty soon! However, looks like it's going to meet that cold front that ate up the other invest in a few days, so it better continue to organize while it has time. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:29, November 8, 2015 (UTC) :::: It looks set to become Kate soon. It would be great to have a November storm this year! I am betting on a formation by tomorrow or Tuesday, and it might be a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane at its peak strength. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 16:57, November 8, 2015 (UTC) 94L.INVEST I don't know when this was invested, but on wunderground it's shown as an invest. The chance of development has gone up to 70/70, and it's looking pretty well organized. It could be a tropical depression 3 hours from now depending on what the aircraft mission set to arrive there finds. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:04, November 8, 2015 (UTC) :Since this'll form in November, it should be put in this section. Anyways, it probably will become Kate, but it won't get that strong if it does so, and it'll turn away before hitting the U.S. east coast. I also merged this one and the "AOI.North of Hispaniola" posted below this, they're the same system. 'Ryan1000' 18:39, November 8, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Twelve Here. Forecast to become Kate for a short time as it heads northwest, then northeast out to sea. Unfortunately, this'll probably be a name-stealing fail...Ryan1000'' 03:54, November 9, 2015 (UTC) :Actually, this is supposed to affect the Bahamas, so it's not a complete fail. And honestly, I'm happy with almost any named storm in November. However, it would be nice to see Kate reach at least 60 mph and not join the huge tie for weakest storm. Looks like the Atlantic hurricane season wasn't quite done yet, and hopefully Kate has some tricks in store that do not involve death and destruction! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:05, November 9, 2015 (UTC) ::::It's too small and weak to noticeably impact the Bahamas, though I will give Kate-to be some credit if she becomes a hurricane on her way out to sea, like Shary of 2010 did. Though that's not too likely. Ryan1000 04:14, November 9, 2015 (UTC) :::::Here comes Kate (hopefully)! Looks like if Kate is named we'll end this season with that name, just like 1985. Not bad! Owen 04:15, November 9, 2015 (UTC) :::::In an El Niño year after all. If it becomes Kate it will make it one of the Latest El Niño year to end because most end in Sept or Oct. Anyways imo she will become 65 to 75 as she is small and may strength fast. Allanjeffs 04:44, November 9, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kate Recon found TS force winds, so special statement upgrades the depression to TS Kate. It would be cool if Kate can become a hurricane, but it needs more convection first. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:40, November 9, 2015 (UTC) : Kate better get on with it if she wants to become a hurricane, the front is closing in fast. It would be pretty cool if it does become a 1, but it won't get past that. Ryan1000 16:56, November 9, 2015 (UTC) ::: The front has actually become a warm front and begun to move AWAY from Kate, so Kate still has time. Kate's been looking increasingly organized, and the NOAA aircraft found 50 mph winds, although with an abnormally high 1007 mb pressure. The good news is that the Bahamas were spared from the worst of the storm as the TS force winds were only to the north and east sections of the storm, and now Kate can intensify as much as it wants - by the time Kate would have reached Bermuda it will be absorbed. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:07, November 10, 2015 (UTC) ::: This surprised me, I didn't expect anymore activity out of the Atlantic. Okay then, go on Kate, intensify before your absorbed. leeboy100My Talk! 00:10, November 10, 2015 (UTC) ::::50 kts/1005 mbar. Five-way tie for weakest storm of the season avoided, thank goodness. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:42, November 10, 2015 (UTC) :::::With its intensification to 60 mph/50 knots, it might even have a slight shot at hurricane strength before it is absorbed. It would surely be nice and fantastic to see a November hurricane this year. Give it your all, Kate, before you're absorbed on Wednesday! [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 06:00, November 10, 2015 (UTC) ::::::Although Kate has not intensified more yet, the new forecast makes Kate a hurricane, along with Kate absorbing the extratropical system and lasting five days, although extratropical after two. Looks like the tables have turned! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:44, November 10, 2015 (UTC) :::::::60 kts/999 mbar! One more inch, and we have our fourth hurricane of the season! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:09, November 10, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::If it can clear out even a faint eye, then it's set. The pressure's still kind of high, but the fact that it's falling is a good sign it will continue to strengthen. A November hurricane would be a great way to end for the Atlantic in an El Nino year! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:13, November 10, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::Come on, Kate. 70 mph 999 millibars. leeboy100My Talk! 22:22, November 10, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::::''Still not a hurricane, but NHC says it's reeeaaaallllly close. From the latest discussion: "the area of cloud tops has expanded and cooled within the past few hours. ... Although flight-level winds and 0000 UTC Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 65 kt, dropwindsonde and SFMR data indicate that the winds aloft are not efficiently mixing down to the surface and the initial intensity remains 60 kt." Come on, Kate!!!! You got this, girl! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:54, November 11, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::::Pressure has fallen.............by 1 millibar. It's now down to 998 and still at 70 mph. Also, I thought this thing was going to be absorbed.......... leeboy100My Talk! 04:53, November 11, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::::::Kate is rocketing northeast at 35 mph, it better become a hurricane fast before it gets absorbed by that front or before SST's cool below the threshold for a hurricane. It's still not too late for Kate to become a hurricane, but it better do so later today if it wants to at all. Ryan1000 05:09, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::::::The NHC forecast actually not shows it being absorbed anymore, but instead Kate will become extratropical on Thursday and its extratropical remnants are forecast to rocket to the northeast and approach Europe. I guess it won't be absorbed... And I am really hoping for another hurricane here, come on girl! You've got this! The NHC forecast also makes it a hurricane. I'd say it'll peak at approximately 75-80 mph, so it should become a hurricane. I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't become one. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 05:15, November 11, 2015 (UTC) Hurricane Kate It's rushing across the north Atlantic at 40 mph, it's not been a very active year, and it's a late season storm...so naturally it became a hurricane. Good show, Kate. Jake52 (talk) 10:43, November 11, 2015 (UTC) : Not bad, not bad at all. Should go extratropical in a day or two. 'Ryan1000' 12:22, November 11, 2015 (UTC) ::Well played, Kate! It looks like it's going extratropical now though. Assuming we don't get some random weak storm, Kate ends the season nicely, and despite the El Niño, a storm existed during every month of the season, along with Ana in May. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:20, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :::Yay it made it to hurricane strength! Kate should be extratropical by tonight though. It's pretty cool that we saw a November hurricane in an El Niño year. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 20:54, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :::Well done, Kate! I have to say, this season has been impressive for an El Nino year! Leeboy100Veteran's Day! 21:11, November 11, 2015 (UTC) (Sorry for modifying my signature so much. If it's getting on anyone's nerves, I'll stop. :::::It's not unheard of to see a late-season hurricane in El Nino years, Florence and Gordon '94 formed in November, as did Frances '86. Although, none of them hit a top speed of 44 mph, this thing is rocketing northeastward that fast, which is one of the fastest rates of TC travel I've ever seen. 'Ryan1000' 23:07, November 11, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kate (2nd time) NHC says that Kate has weakened, but is not extratropical just yet. Should be by the next advisory, but the fact that it's still tropical now means Kate has lasted 3 days. Pretty good considering how fast it was moving, but short-lived nonetheless. When Kate soon becomes extratropical, it might be the end of the 2015 AHS. Considering that we were thinking that Kate wouldn't happen this year, it was quite a surprise to have it form in November and become a hurricane! Nice job, Kate! Notably, Kate's pressure fell to 983 mb with this advisory, I guess related to ET transition. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:48, November 12, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Kate Our rather interesting November hurricane has come to pass. Au revoir, Kate! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 11:45, November 12, 2015 (UTC) : I thought it was interesting to see a hurricane spring up in the Atlantic in November during an El Niño year. Good riddance, Kate! P.S. I like your French. :P '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:55, November 13, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Wave 1 (November 5 - November 12) Tropical Wave 1 (November 5 - November 12) I just saw that the wave is actually completely separate from the above AOI. Axis extends from Cuba to near Panama currently, and is south of the above AOI. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 17:02, November 8, 2015 (UTC) :It's now slamming into Central America, and I'll watch for any signs in the EPac. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 06:07, November 10, 2015 (UTC) ::The tropical wave is now moving into the EPac while crossing Central America. Any further posts are located on the EPac forum, here. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:18, November 11, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Wave 2 (November 5 - present) Tropical Wave 2 (November 5 - present) This one is hanging around the eastern/central Atlantic, not likely to do much I'd say. Current axis is 17N34W to 06N35W, and it is west of the Cape Verdes. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 01:37, November 6, 2015 (UTC) :It's nearing the Windwards currently. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 17:03, November 8, 2015 (UTC) ::Passed the Windwards, and in the eastern Caribbean. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 06:07, November 10, 2015 (UTC) ::In the central Caribbean - 19N74W to 10N73W '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:19, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :::Now it's in the western Caribbean - 19N82W to 09N80W - and should slam into Central America soon. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 20:55, November 11, 2015 (UTC) ::::And this one's also in the EPac currently. See here for continued posts. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:57, November 13, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Wave (November 9 - November 15) Tropical Wave (November 9 - November 15) Another new one has appeared on the TWD, and is in the central Atlantic. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 06:07, November 10, 2015 (UTC) : Starting to cross the Windward Islands - 14N60W to 06N60W '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:20, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :: This wave is very southern, half of the axis is actually over South America, and the other half is in the eastern Caribbean - 15N65W to 05N66W. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 20:56, November 11, 2015 (UTC) ::: It's already in the southwestern Caribbean - 07N82W to 16N82W. Should be in the EPac by the weekend if not tomorrow. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:59, November 13, 2015 (UTC) :::: It might be in the EPac by tonight or something. Currently over Central America, with axis extending from 16N84 to 09N84W (Honduras to Costa Rica). '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:11, November 13, 2015 (UTC) ::::: It's dissipated now. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 03:12, November 16, 2015 (UTC) GFS Atlantic tropical storm GFS Atlantic tropical storm Look at this. Larry may be coming next week according to the GFS. The Atlantic ain't done yet! Owen 20:40, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :Hmm, interesting. Might be a weakling at most though, or it might not even develop at all. We'll see. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 20:57, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :::It would be amazing if the Atlantic is STILL not done yet, but I doubt the GFS, it's been predicting a bunch of stoms that never happened. Honestly, I'm not expecting anything. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:24, November 12, 2015 (UTC) AOI: GFS caribbean storm AOI: GFS caribbean storm GFS develops this, i doubt it will happen though (very near GFS's la-la-land) edit: has it crossing to the EPac with circulation apparently still intact --hon hon hon | hon hon hon • • 17:03, November 13, 2015 (UTC) : I am hoping these forecasts come true! It would be truly amazing to see Larry or even Mindy before the year is over. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:12, November 13, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Wave (November 15 - November 20) Tropical Wave (November 15 - November 20) What if this tropical wave becomes something? It's in the central Atlantic extending from 19N46W to 08N47W. Still hoping for Larry before the end. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 03:14, November 16, 2015 (UTC) : Now goes from 19N53W to 08N52W and should punch the Windwards/Lesser Antilles in a couple days. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 01:04, November 17, 2015 (UTC) :: It's already in the central Caribbean, extending from 09N71W to 17N72W. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:43, November 19, 2015 (UTC) ::: This wave has died out also. Looks like the Atlantic probably won't get anything during the rest of the season. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:36, November 20, 2015 (UTC) :: Tropical Wave (November 16 - November 19) Tropical Wave (November 16 - November 19) Deeper in the Atlantic waters, we got this one... it's extending from 12N40W to 04N41W and is in the middle of the Atlantic. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 01:04, November 17, 2015 (UTC) :: It has died out already. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:44, November 19, 2015 (UTC) AOI: Southwestern Caribbean AOI: Southwestern Caribbean At 10/20. Hopefully we see Larry from this AOI! It's expected to drift slowly to Central America, so it could have a chance. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 01:04, November 17, 2015 (UTC) : It's been off the TWO for a while now. Oh well. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:09, November 19, 2015 (UTC) :: At this rate, the Atlantic is over. The "farewell" section will be made at the end of the season, on November 30. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''''' 23:45, November 19, 2015 (UTC)